Latest Updates

VashonAlliedArts.org hosts an important lecturer on earthquakes, coming to Vashon in November.

You only have seconds. Do you know exactly what to do the moment the ground starts shaking? If it involves a doorway, a triangle, or running – these are not quake-safe actions. Register now at www.ShakeOut.org/washington/register to learn more and practice updated quake safety. Be a part of Washington’s ShakeOut drill.

You are invited to join thousands of people who will Drop, Cover, and Hold On on October 18th at 10:18 a.m. in the 2012 Great Washington ShakeOut!

More than 12.5 million people were registered...

 

Nearly a hundred islanders took part in the regional Evergreen Quake on June 5th & 6th at the Vashon Emergency Operations Center.

It was fairly historic for a number of reasons:

- Initial test of Operation Lifeline (King County’s redirecting their passenger ferry or hiring a barge – to support emergency needs on Vashon) - The Planning Section has adopted the standard ICS Planning Clock - and had the 1st real run-though of this during a major exercise - The Public Information Team...

Today’s Vashon Beachcomber had a bunch of great quotes that Susan Riemer got from next week’s expert speakers. She especially covered the little reported tsunami risk that could damage our ferry docks, certain waterfront locations (those perpendicular to the surge), and perhaps the isthmus between Vashon and Maury Islands. Some information on this can also be found on our tsunami page.

Read her Beachcomber article here:...

Art Frankel and Craig Weaver of the U.S. Geological Survey gave a presentation to the Seattle City Council on Monday (as noted in this agenda) that has raised some eyebrows – and reaffirms our sensitivity to upcoming seismic disturbances. See their PowerPoint presentation or read on for a few copies of a few of their slides.

In 2014, there will be a regular 6 year update to the National Seismic Hazard Maps. A workshop on the Pacific Northwest Portion of this was held locally on March 21-22, 2012.

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The March 28th edition of the Vashon Loop put notice of our Annual Meeting in the lead position at the top of page 1! Given the interest I’m hearing about, I think we may have a very full house, as we only have room for some 300 people in the Chautauqua Multipurpose Room on April 18th.

www.vashonloop.com/article/experts-talk-vashon%E2%80%99s-earthquake-and-tsunami-risks

VashonBePrepared is celebrating our 5th anniversary by sponsoring two of the state's foremost experts on Vashon's unique earthquake and tsunami risks. Recent scientific reports, a number based on lessons from Japan's devastating Tōhoku...

An ‘ongoing’ effort (but apparently in abeyance since 2002?!) to create an accurate seismic model for the Puget Sound region and British Columbia is the USGS’ Seismic Hazards Investigations in the Puget Sound (SHIPS) project. Since March 1998 SHIPS has conducted a series of seismic studies to better describe...

 

A 210 foot long fishing boat lost in last year’s March 11th Japan tsunami is about 150 miles off of the Canadian coastline according to a new news story on the Canadian Yahoo site.

Most folks think of an overseas or Cascadia based quake as generating a terrible tsunami – and they are right. However such a tsunami is not likely to cause massive damage to Vashon from what I’ve heard – largely due to the moderating influence of the Straits of Juan de Fuca. (It will be interesting to verify this at our upcoming April 18th community meeting with Washington State experts).

There...

When you notice a tsunami bearing down on you, you can now pull out your smartphone to learn which way to run! The Tsunami Evacuation NW online portal and iPhone and Android apps will also tell you if you work or live...

In “Quake catastrophe like Japan's could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show” M. Alex Johnson of msnbc.com also reports on last month’s reports at the American Association for the Advancement of Science – noting that the Cascadia quake has numerous parallels with Japan’s Tōhoku disaster one year ago.

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According to Bill Steele, the public is woefully unprepared for a certain disaster: we just don’t know when. Mr. Steele is Seismology Lab Coordinator for the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network (PNSN) at the University of Washington Department of Earth and Space Sciences where he has worked since 1993.

In a widely reported story (covered by USA Today and many other major papers across the country), the Longview Daily News reports...

Just a brief note to commemorate those whose lives have been disrupted and lost by the Tōhoku disaster one year ago today.

Japan’s...

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…sometime in the next 500 years, according to a great blog a couple weeks back by the PSSN’s John Vidale, a regular contributor to their “Seismo Blog” How likely is it to go? Well you’ll have to read his blog that breaks down some of the inputs to evaluating the actual risk factor – which I think he never actually stated…

There’s a whole list of interrelated blogs on this topic which I saw after reading Ben Jervey’s nice post on the subject – which is a commentary of the NY Times post...

Cascadia Subduction Zone Example: the 1700 earthquake that caused shaking and a tsunami that inundated the Oregon coast and reached as far as Japan.

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Two new articles from the Homeland Security Newswire and the Yakima Herald discuss new fault lines (maybe better described as...

VashonBePrepared has been working with the Debi Richards and the Vashon Chamber of Commerce and a large number of local businesses this fall to promote business disaster preparedness. A useful new national program has just been announced that promises to provide some great guidance for all of us. The big aim:

Identify your risk Make a mitigation project plan Implement techniques for ensuring and enhancing business resilience What a great new goal for Vashon businesses in 2012!

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)...

CBS recently listed a number of sobering facts about earthquake insurance that anyone from a scesmicly active area - like those of us from the Salish Sea would do well to be familiar with. Most know it isn’t included in standard homeowner’s policies, but even with it beware of the large number of restrictions in comparison to fire or other policies.

The topics covered are:

Deductibles Personal possessions Exclusions Loss of use Uncovered losses don't count toward the deductible Cost of coverage Who suffers catastrophic claims Mitigating risks Read the article at www.cbsnews.com/8301-505144_162-57319955/earthquake-insurance-8-things-you-need-to-know/

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Hazus is a nationally applicable standardized methodology that contains models for estimating potential losses from earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes. Hazus uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of disasters.

HAZUS-MH is software developed by FEMA that analyzes risk from natural hazards in communities. Although Hazus-MH itself is free, it requires the users to have ArcGIS with ArcView license level.

Existing HAZUS-MH runs for Vashon (i.e. those for our 2005 Earthquake Study,...

It is not too surprising that it would happen somewhere in California in any given day, but yesterday’s 2011 Great California ShakeOut earthquake drill was punctuated with a few minor quakes yesterday around the Berkeley area. No injuries and only minor damage was reported.

Some 1.3 million...

KING 5 News reported today a swarm of earthquakes in recent weeks around Mount Rainier: nothing especially exciting, but an alert that it IS an active volcano!

Read the full story here. For the latest view of regional quakes, always visit www.pnsn.org/req2/.

If you appreciated my 14 March post that mentioned the ABC site showing before & after images of some tsunami scenes, you’ll likely also appreciate this somewhat similar set of photos from the Sacramento Bee that show 3 sequential images shot from the same perspective – of maybe a dozen different scenes. Thanks to Cathy Rogers & Jill Watson for alerting us to these.

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The Associated Press came to this week’s 5th Annual Hazus conference held at the federal building and wrote up a nice piece citing (yet again) that we are not ready for the huge quakes possible from any number of faults, but especially the Seattle and Cascadia faults:

   Of particular worry to government agencies - and emergency planners like Schelling - is the 680-mile long Cascadia fault line, which runs just 50 miles off Washington's shore. Scientists have found that a big 8.0 to 9.0 earthquake has hit that fault line about every 500 years. The last one struck in 1700.    According to a 2005 study that used Hazus data, such a strong earthquake would level parts of the region, bringing landslides,...

Oregon and Washington are likely to have a very serious earthquake in future decades, according to a disturbing article in the Oregonian.

“Within the next 50 years… Washington and northern Oregon face a 10 to 15 percent probability of an offshore quake powerful enough to kill thousands and launch a tsunami that would level coastal cities. … the Northwest is dangerously unprepared...

If you’ve not come across them, Paul Nichols has created several time lapse earthquake maps. Working at the University of Canterbury's Digital Media Group, he takes USGS or GeoNet data and plots it using the Google Maps API to create a fascinating animation.

The main message is that “the” quake is actually a “quake swarm” - with a few prominent releases that really stand out amongst a background of thousands of smaller...

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is pleased to announce that Earthquake-Resistant Design Concepts:...

Are your bookcases secured - or your water heater? There are often personal tasks that we all need to accomplish - but need a bit of advice or to see the basics before tackling these projects. The following were designed for exactly this purpose!

For our media outreach efforts, and for individual preparedness, please be aware of the following videos produced for Washington residents.  These videos were produced in partnership with Kitsap County Department of Emergency Management and the Washington State Emergency Management Division. Funding for the project was made possible through grants from Governor Christine Gregoire, Washington State Citizen Corps and a donation from Puget Sound Energy. 

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Seattle, Washington, June 1, 2011 – On Friday, March 11, 2011 at 2:46 PM (local time), the northeast coast of Japan was struck by a magnitude 9.0 (M9.0) subduction earthquake as the boundary between the Pacific and the North American plates ruptured along an offshore section. The rupture extended about 200 miles along the Japan coast, resulting in approximately 100 feet of vertical slip and causing a series of devastating tsunamis. A similar event along the Cascadia...

Mark your calendars!  The Annual Hazus Conference will be held in Seattle, Washington, August 10 – 12, 2011, at the Henry M. Jackson Federal Building. 

HAZUS-MH is software developed by FEMA that analyzes risk from natural hazards in communities. To register for this FREE conference, please visit www.hazus.net. From their site:

HAZUS-MH is a powerful risk assessment methodology used to analyze potential losses from natural hazards including floods, hurricane winds and earthquakes. HAZUS uses state-of-the-art Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software combined with science, engineering and mathematical modeling to map and display hazard data and the results of damage and economic loss estimates for buildings and infrastructure. ...

Scientists now can track the minuscule motions of shifting plates as they happen, thanks to an expanded network of GPS sensors that covers the region like a blanket and beams back data almost instantly.



"If the Pacific Coast or Mount Rainier moves a couple of centimeters, we'll see it within five seconds," said Tim Melbourne, director of the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array, or PANGA. Once the network's "real-time" functions are fully operational, PANGA will be able to pinpoint some earthquakes more quickly and accurately than traditional seismometers — and eventually issue warnings before destructive shaking hits cities or tsunami waves slam the shore.

Scientists use the GPS data to calculate the gradual buildup of strain on faults and identify the places most likely...

Hundreds of people and a score of emergency agencies will participate in Snohomish County’s largest disaster drill ever. "Shake, Rattle and Roll 2011" will be held Wednesday at Arlington's municipal airport. The scenario is a 7.5 magnitude earthquake along the South Whidbey Fault, which runs through Snohomish County.

Participants include Medical Reserve Corps and community volunteers from Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan, Island and Snohomish...

The Department of Homeland Security and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) are pleased to share the following compilations of FEMA earthquake publications, at no cost:

Earthquake Publications for Teachers and Kids, FEMA P-710CD...

King County OEM’s Pascal Schuback had a neat 138 character tweet today that took me well over an hour to digest:

Know the difference 2B ready RT @USGS: How much bigger is a 8.7 2A 5.8? Click "Try It Yourself" Calculator at top of http://go.usa.gov/baq

As they note on their site, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/how_much_bigger.php:

The magnitude scale is really comparing amplitudes of waves on a seismogram, not the STRENGTH (energy) of the quakes. So, a magnitude 8.7 is 794 times bigger than a 5.8 quake as measured on seismograms, but the 8.7 quake is about 23,000 times STRONGER than the 5.8! Since it is really the energy or strength that knocks down buildings, this is really the more important comparison. This means that it would take about 23,000 quakes of magnitude 5.8 to equal the energy released by one magnitude 8.7 event.

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http://www.gsnmagazine.com/node/22726 describes a major multi-state, national exercise simulating the 1811 New Madrid earthquake – actually a series of seismic events (up to seven on the Richter Scale) from December 1811 into 1812. According to FEMA, NLE 2011 will be the first NLE to simulate a natural hazard and also uses a state-based planning process rather than federal.

From FEMA Administrator W. Craig Fugate comes word of a new base plan for such events, the National Exercise Program Base Plan, as updated a few weeks ago, on March 18. National standards for such exercises are coordinated through the Homeland Security Exercise and Evaluation Program (HSEEP).

Yesterday a lightly attended hearing was held by the Committee on Science, Space and Technology’s Subcommittee on Technology and Innovation looking at renewing funding for earthquake preparedness. Two northwesterners testified: Mr. Jim Mullen, Director, Washington State Emergency Management Division; President, National Emergency Management Association & Dr. Vicki McConnell, Oregon State Geologist and Director, Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries.

In 1977 Congress passed the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act (NEHRP) as a long-term earthquake risk reduction program for the United States....

www.seattle.gov/emergency has a new set of nice publications for citizens with very basic advice to citizens for surviving and earthquake or tsunami.

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Release Date and Time:03-25-2011 08:19:00 AM

"Triangle of Life" theory is dismissed by quake experts. The technique is not applicable for earthquake experiences in the U.S. The safest response is to "Drop, Cover, and Hold" until the ground stops shaking.

With images of Japan’s devastating earthquake fresh on our minds, so is another round of Internet misinformation about what should be your first move during an earthquake. The King County Office of Emergency Management wants you to know that "Drop, Cover, and Hold" is the best method to protect yourself during an earthquake in the United States, especially in our own quake-prone region.

“Unfortunately, emails have circulated recently, touting the ‘Triangle of Life’ technique, which incorrectly claims that people can use ‘voids’ or ‘empty spaces’ as a way to survive earthquakes,” said Hillman Mitchell, Director of the King County Office of Emergency Management. “Simply put, the technique is not applicable for earthquake experiences in the United...

www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/beforeafter.htm has incredible photos of the Japanese earthquake’s aftereffects – as contrasted with an initial view of the same scene.

You may think your insurance policy covers your home, apartment or business for earthquakes and floods. The Northwest Insurance Council thinks you should take a closer look, because many people are not insured for such national disasters.

The Olympian reports the insurance council is urging Washington residents to consider both earthquake and flood insurance. The council says earthquake and tsunami damage is not covered under most standard homeowners, renters and business owners insurance policies.

Earthquake insurance is available as a separate policy or as an endorsement to current coverage. Flood insurance policies are provided through the federal government's National Flood Insurance Program.

- http://www.seattlepi.com/local/6420ap_wa_quake_insurance.html

Gauges at the University of Washington lit up for hours after the initial Japanese earthquake, which now has been determined to be the fifth largest earthquake in the world since 1900.

"Unmistakable; any instrument in the world could see this earthquake," said John Vidale, a seismologist at UW.

"You can see there are still continuing magnitude four, five and six earthquakes," he said as he motioned to a monitor on Friday.

Vidale said he wasn't totally surprised by the massive quake -- it happened on one of the most volatile subduction zones in the world.

Local seismologists haven't seen any increased seismic activity on Washington's side of the Pacific Ocean, but Vidale said the event should serve as a reminder that the region is due for a smaller quake.

- http://www.kirotv.com/news/27169289/detail.html

Losses from the quake, tsunami and fires will total at least $100 billion, including $20 billion in damage to residences and $40 billion in damage to infrastructure such as roads, rail and port facilities, catastrophe modeling firm Eqecat estimated.

Another firm, AIR Worldwide, estimated that losses covered by insurance could reach between $15 billion and $35 billion from the earthquake alone. It did not estimate losses from the tsunami or the damage to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in northeastern Japan.

According to AIR, the number of Japanese businesses and homeowners with earthquake insurance is relatively low, ranging between 14% to 17%. As a result, the total financial toll for the catastrophe could be considerably higher than the estimate of insured losses.

- http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/13/news/international/japan_earthquake_cost/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=Sbin

“This week's earthquake caused the main island of Japan to shift as much as 13 feet to the east, seismologists say. That may sound like a shocker, but it's just one of the natural changes that come along with an 8.9-magnitude temblor — like the 1.6-microsecond speed-up of Earth's daily rotation and the 4-inch shift in Earth's axis.”

- http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/03/12/6256280-how-the-quake-shifted-japan?chromedomain=cosmiclog>1=43001

[updated] Also Cathy Rogers forwarded this link with additional details on this topic:

- http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110314/ts_yblog_thelookout/japans-earthquake-shifted-balance-of-the-planet

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Taking advantage of the Nisqually Earthquake’s ten year anniversary were several retrospectives on note from key Washington disaster officials:

WEMD Director Jim Mullen posts his notes about how close we came to an even larger disaster, impacts of tightened budgetary constraints, and a chance meeting with FEMA’s head of preparedness efforts – who just happened to be in Christchurch for the latest quake: http://blogemd.blogspot.com/2011/02/thirteen-seconds.html

Seattle Office of Emergency Management Director, Barb Graff, pulled out a recent report that gives nice detail to the accomplishments done after the Nisqually Quake in Seattle: quite a lot!

Sadly this anniversary comes at a time that funding for the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network is facing significant budget cutbacks threatening many regional services.

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The recent 6.3 magnitude earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand, killed many more people and caused far more damage than the September 2010 7.1 magnitude earthquake which struck the same area; the reason: even though this earthquake was weaker than last year's event, it was much shallower; was situated directly under Christchurch; hit during the lunch hour when more people were exposed to damage; and shook sediments that were prone to "liquefaction," which can magnify the damage done by the ground shaking; scientists say the same description nicely fits many major cities and towns in Washington, Oregon, California, and British Columbia.

- See the full post at: www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/nz-earthquake-illustrates-risks-us-west-coast

Yes, 2012! More is to come, and you can consult Chief Lipe or Exercise Czar Rick Wallace for all the details, but for now please just add the following dates to next year’s calendar:

2012 Exercise Series Functional Exercise: June 5-6 Logistics Drill: June 12-14 Recovery TTX: August 15 & 22 Overview Evergreen Quake is a series of three exercises that is intended to test the ability of local, state, federal and tribal governments, as well as select private sector entities located within the eight-county...

Bellevue’s MRP Engineering has a new engineering bulletin entitled Chile Recovers From 2010 M8.8 Earthquake that looks at progress made since their M8.8 earthquake February 27th, 2010. It concludes with these implications:

Chile is making headway in rebuilding its heartland following a massive subduction zone earthquake that affected modern structures as far away as Santiago (335 km from the epicenter). However, the recovery from a major earthquake need not be a lengthy process. Organizations with earthquake exposures can learn from this event and should consider proactive steps to enhance safety, reduce damage, and minimize downtime. • Review business recovery plans to include dedicated resources (contactors, suppliers, and engineers). • For existing operations, assess earthquake risks (buildings, contents, and critical lifelines) and identify specific areas of improvement relative to safety and business risks. • For proposed construction, perform independent design reviews to verify...

U.S. Geological Survey: Twitter Earthquake Detector (TED) reports that “the USGS is developing a system that gathers real-time, earthquake-related messages from the social networking site Twitter and applies place, time, and key word filtering to gather geo-located accounts of shaking. This approach provides rapid first-impression narratives and, potentially, photos from people at the hazard’s location.” http://fcw.com/articles/2010/07/19/web-app-usgs-twitter.aspx indicates that the USGS will supplement their official data with photographs and...

This is (nearly) the title of the latest USGS fact sheet #3023 summarizing what could happen if a 7.1 earthquake happened along the Tacoma Fault Zone, as recently modeled by scientists.



"The U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating scientists have recently assessed the effects of a magnitude 7.1 earthquake on the Tacoma Fault Zone in Pierce County, Washington. A quake of comparable magnitude struck the southern Puget Sound region about 1,100 years ago, and similar earthquakes are almost certain to occur in the future. The region is now home to hundreds of thousands of people, who would be at risk from the shaking, liquefaction, landsliding, and tsunamis caused by such an earthquake. The modeled effects of this scenario earthquake will help emergency planners and residents of the region prepare for future quakes." - Report’s...

If you’ve not seen it, there is a good map of local faults, with a brief write-up at www.pnsn.org/INFO_GENERAL/puget_faults.html

Click on the image for a larger view.

Of interest on KCTS-9:
Cascadia: The Hidden Fire
Tuesday, 6/8/10, at 8:00 p.m.
Seismic events around the globe offer insight into the super-quake-prone areas along the Pacific Rim. Producer Michael Lienau will join us in studio.

Also note that KUOW, 94.9 FM, local NPR affiliate also hosted a series on Earthquakes this last week to apparently coincide with the KCTS show.