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Two joint studies are out this week and indicate that the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013’s predictions of a global sea rise of a bit over 3 feet by the end of the century could be way off.

Apparently warm ocean water is already undermining a vast stretch of West Antarctica ice that could release enough water to raise sea levels by up to 11 feet in the next 100-200 years. 13 million people live within 10 vertical feet of the ocean and Miami, New Orleans, and New York City would be the cities most affected.

Read yesterday’s Washington Post’s article...

Western North America experienced the strongest drought in 800 years from 2000 to 2004 – but that may be the new normal for the next century. Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America – pg 551 – 556,...

Art Frankel and Craig Weaver of the U.S. Geological Survey gave a presentation to the Seattle City Council on Monday (as noted in this agenda) that has raised some eyebrows – and reaffirms our sensitivity to upcoming seismic disturbances. See their PowerPoint presentation or read on for a few copies of a few of their slides.

In 2014, there will be a regular 6 year update to the National Seismic Hazard Maps. A workshop on the Pacific Northwest Portion of this was held locally on March 21-22, 2012.

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An ‘ongoing’ effort (but apparently in abeyance since 2002?!) to create an accurate seismic model for the Puget Sound region and British Columbia is the USGS’ Seismic Hazards Investigations in the Puget Sound (SHIPS) project. Since March 1998 SHIPS has conducted a series of seismic studies to better describe...

Most folks think of an overseas or Cascadia based quake as generating a terrible tsunami – and they are right. However such a tsunami is not likely to cause massive damage to Vashon from what I’ve heard – largely due to the moderating influence of the Straits of Juan de Fuca. (It will be interesting to verify this at our upcoming April 18th community meeting with Washington State experts).

There...

In “Quake catastrophe like Japan's could hit Pacific Northwest, new data show” M. Alex Johnson of msnbc.com also reports on last month’s reports at the American Association for the Advancement of Science – noting that the Cascadia quake has numerous parallels with Japan’s Tōhoku disaster one year ago.

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Not too surprisingly, disaster preparedness is not at the forefront of most Americans priority – but many don’t even have any plans. The original research was done by the Persuadable Research Corporation with reports of the survey released by PRWeb and the Homeland Security News Wire.

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Japan’s...

Cascadia Subduction Zone Example: the 1700 earthquake that caused shaking and a tsunami that inundated the Oregon coast and reached as far as Japan.

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Doomsday clock moves closer to midnight Numerous articles (including USA Today’s) note that scientists have moved the hands of the doomsday clock toward midnight – as a visible metaphor for our lessened security due to our fuelish ways.  It is notoriously hard to change our social (i.e., automotive) ways, but the consequences of our not taking a long term view are increasingly resulting in massive storm and economic damage today to societies across the globe.

Disaster risks are judged by multiplying the estimated...

According to the inspector general (IG) of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), state and local fusion centers and emergency operations centers could improve the response of their jurisdictions to terrorism and natural disasters if they talked to each other more often. Many fusion centers and EOCs surveyed do not exchange information.

While Washington State’s fusion center’s near-daily briefing tends toward being a fear based police blotter, extracting news...

CBS notes that this year’s 12 disasters costing over 1 billion dollars each surpasses the number seen during all the 1980’s – even with inflation adjustments. In associated reports they note that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s...

The Associated Press came to this week’s 5th Annual Hazus conference held at the federal building and wrote up a nice piece citing (yet again) that we are not ready for the huge quakes possible from any number of faults, but especially the Seattle and Cascadia faults:

   Of particular worry to government agencies - and emergency planners like Schelling - is the 680-mile long Cascadia fault line, which runs just 50 miles off Washington's shore. Scientists have found that a big 8.0 to 9.0 earthquake has hit that fault line about every 500 years. The last one struck in 1700.    According to a 2005 study that used Hazus data, such a strong earthquake would level parts of the region, bringing landslides,...

Oregon and Washington are likely to have a very serious earthquake in future decades, according to a disturbing article in the Oregonian.

“Within the next 50 years… Washington and northern Oregon face a 10 to 15 percent probability of an offshore quake powerful enough to kill thousands and launch a tsunami that would level coastal cities. … the Northwest is dangerously unprepared...

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is pleased to announce that Earthquake-Resistant Design Concepts:...

I heard that “our” very own Don Price recently served as the head of ESF-6 for FEMA’s recovery efforts in Mississippi! He and other locals who have been serving afield will present their debrief on Tuesday, June 21st, from 1 – 3 PM. The location is the King County Office of Emergency Management Room 114 – Main Coordination Center.

There have been ground breaking developments in Children’s issues, FNSS, ADA, ESF 6 multi-agency coordination and more. Lessons learned, best practices and how to apply them to our local operations will all be discussed.

Speakers:

Don Price, Emergency Management Program Manager, King County...

Seattle, Washington, June 1, 2011 – On Friday, March 11, 2011 at 2:46 PM (local time), the northeast coast of Japan was struck by a magnitude 9.0 (M9.0) subduction earthquake as the boundary between the Pacific and the North American plates ruptured along an offshore section. The rupture extended about 200 miles along the Japan coast, resulting in approximately 100 feet of vertical slip and causing a series of devastating tsunamis. A similar event along the Cascadia...

Mark your calendars!  The Annual Hazus Conference will be held in Seattle, Washington, August 10 – 12, 2011, at the Henry M. Jackson Federal Building. 

HAZUS-MH is software developed by FEMA that analyzes risk from natural hazards in communities. To register for this FREE conference, please visit www.hazus.net. From their site:

HAZUS-MH is a powerful risk assessment methodology used to analyze potential losses from natural hazards including floods, hurricane winds and earthquakes. HAZUS uses state-of-the-art Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software combined with science, engineering and mathematical modeling to map and display hazard data and the results of damage and economic loss estimates for buildings and infrastructure. ...

Scientists now can track the minuscule motions of shifting plates as they happen, thanks to an expanded network of GPS sensors that covers the region like a blanket and beams back data almost instantly.



"If the Pacific Coast or Mount Rainier moves a couple of centimeters, we'll see it within five seconds," said Tim Melbourne, director of the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array, or PANGA. Once the network's "real-time" functions are fully operational, PANGA will be able to pinpoint some earthquakes more quickly and accurately than traditional seismometers — and eventually issue warnings before destructive shaking hits cities or tsunami waves slam the shore.

Scientists use the GPS data to calculate the gradual buildup of strain on faults and identify the places most likely...

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Today's 8.9 magnitude earthquake in Japan has had surprisingly limited impacts on the structure and routing dynamics of the regional Internet. Of roughly 6,000 Japanese network prefixes in the global routing table, only about 100 were temporarily withdrawn from service — and that number has actually decreased in the hours since the event. Other carriers around the region have reported congestion and drops in traffic due to follow-on effects of the quake, but most websites are up and operational, and the Internet is available to support critical communications.

Those who have been following our blogs on Libya...

“This week's earthquake caused the main island of Japan to shift as much as 13 feet to the east, seismologists say. That may sound like a shocker, but it's just one of the natural changes that come along with an 8.9-magnitude temblor — like the 1.6-microsecond speed-up of Earth's daily rotation and the 4-inch shift in Earth's axis.”

- http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/03/12/6256280-how-the-quake-shifted-japan?chromedomain=cosmiclog>1=43001

[updated] Also Cathy Rogers forwarded this link with additional details on this topic:

- http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110314/ts_yblog_thelookout/japans-earthquake-shifted-balance-of-the-planet

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Bellevue’s MRP Engineering has a new engineering bulletin entitled Chile Recovers From 2010 M8.8 Earthquake that looks at progress made since their M8.8 earthquake February 27th, 2010. It concludes with these implications:

Chile is making headway in rebuilding its heartland following a massive subduction zone earthquake that affected modern structures as far away as Santiago (335 km from the epicenter). However, the recovery from a major earthquake need not be a lengthy process. Organizations with earthquake exposures can learn from this event and should consider proactive steps to enhance safety, reduce damage, and minimize downtime. • Review business recovery plans to include dedicated resources (contactors, suppliers, and engineers). • For existing operations, assess earthquake risks (buildings, contents, and critical lifelines) and identify specific areas of improvement relative to safety and business risks. • For proposed construction, perform independent design reviews to verify...

California has more risk of catastrophic storms than any other region in the country – even the Southern hurricane states, according to a new study released Thursday.

The two-year study by the U.S. Geological Survey is the most thorough effort yet to assess the potential effects of a "worst-case" storm in California.

It builds on a new understanding of so-called atmospheric rivers, a focusing of high-powered winds that drag a fire hose of tropical moisture across the Pacific Ocean, pointed directly at California for days on end. The state got a relatively tame taste of the phenomenon in December.

The team of experts that developed the scenario can't say when it will happen. But they do say it has happened in the past and is virtually certain to strike again.

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http://www.cattlenetwork.com/Report--We-re-Not-Ready-For-Bioterrorism/2010-12-28/Article.aspx?oid=1294626&fid= has the following of some interest:

If a major disease incident or bioterrorism attack were to occur today, the United States would not be read for it. That’s according to a new report supported by a grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. In fact, the report says “there’s an emergency for emergency health preparedness in the United States.” It calls attention to significant local, state and federal budget cuts and the impact they have had on public health departments’ ability to maintain staff capabilities, and their ability to respond to crises. Key findings include: * 21 states were not able to rapidly identify disease-causing E.coli O157:H7 and submit the lab results...

 

 





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This is (nearly) the title of the latest USGS fact sheet #3023 summarizing what could happen if a 7.1 earthquake happened along the Tacoma Fault Zone, as recently modeled by scientists.



"The U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating scientists have recently assessed the effects of a magnitude 7.1 earthquake on the Tacoma Fault Zone in Pierce County, Washington. A quake of comparable magnitude struck the southern Puget Sound region about 1,100 years ago, and similar earthquakes are almost certain to occur in the future. The region is now home to hundreds of thousands of people, who would be at risk from the shaking, liquefaction, landsliding, and tsunamis caused by such an earthquake. The modeled effects of this scenario earthquake will help emergency planners and residents of the region prepare for future quakes." - Report’s...

If you’ve not seen it, there is a good map of local faults, with a brief write-up at www.pnsn.org/INFO_GENERAL/puget_faults.html

Click on the image for a larger view.